This study aims to spot the inflation – generating expenses. The expenses items are represented by series of prices statistical indexes. We are going to determine the series of gaps on these prices indexes. We will afterwards study the data- generating process in the context of the ARCH model and the V-GARCH model. We will find out the following items (food, clothes and transports) as inflation- generating items.
We will here study the stock market indexes, in the context of a random walk test with ARCH (q) disturbances. This model based on these theoretical predictions has been valuated from the Tunis Stock market data. The coherence of the parameters signs and the statistical relevance of the estimations are validating the choice of the conditionally heteroskedastic random walk model.
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