Introduction: The coronavirus of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 was discovered in 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The preliminary reproduction rate of SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be between 1. 4 and 2. 5 by WHO on 23 January 2020. Senegal has positioned itself among the countries most affected by the pandemic in Africa. Strategies for the response to the COVID-19 epidemic have been put in place to ensure an operational and effective response in Dakar and the provinces. The overall objective of this study is to analyse the epidemiological evolution of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Senegal in 2020.
Methodology: This was a time series analysis of Covid-19 during the period from March 02 to August 31, 2020. The study population was people tested by RT-PCR for covid-19. The data was aggregated from the publications of the Ministry of Health on the Covid-19 Senegal site and from the WHO. The data collected was analyzed using R software, for description and modeling with ARIMA and Prophet.
Results: This study showed that the total number of Covid-19 cases recorded during the period studied was 13,611, a median of 3,740 was recorded on June 1, 2020; on average, 4810 cases were registered. New confirmed cases had a median of 79 and an average of 73.9 new cases recorded. On average 3050 cured cases were recorded with a median of 1860. On average 3940 cases were transmitted locally. March recorded the highest positivity rate at 13.56% with a sharp decline to 8.49% in August. An attack rate of 1.05 per 100,000 populations was recorded in March, this rate reached 20.98 in August. The reproduction rate was at 1.96 at the start of the state of emergency on March 23, 2020; this rate increased to 1.11 at the end of our study, on August 31, 2020.
Conclusion: The predicted and actual data had shown an upward record of new confirmed cases at the end of 2020. But the data may change in reality due to some changes. In the absence of change, despite the measures put in place, the hope is that the vaccine can provide a solution.