[ Analyse de l’évolution épidémiologique des nouveaux cas confirmés de Covid-19 au Sénégal de mars à août 2020 ]
Volume 71, Issue 1, February 2024, Pages 9–20
Alyette Carêne Bondha1 and JEAN AUGUSTIN DIEGANE TINE2
1 Institut de Santé Publique et de Développement (ISED), Dakar, Senegal
2 Institut de Santé Publique et de Développement (ISED), Dakar, Senegal
Original language: French
Copyright © 2024 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Introduction: The coronavirus of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 was discovered in 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The preliminary reproduction rate of SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be between 1. 4 and 2. 5 by WHO on 23 January 2020. Senegal has positioned itself among the countries most affected by the pandemic in Africa. Strategies for the response to the COVID-19 epidemic have been put in place to ensure an operational and effective response in Dakar and the provinces. The overall objective of this study is to analyse the epidemiological evolution of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Senegal in 2020. Methodology: This was a time series analysis of Covid-19 during the period from March 02 to August 31, 2020. The study population was people tested by RT-PCR for covid-19. The data was aggregated from the publications of the Ministry of Health on the Covid-19 Senegal site and from the WHO. The data collected was analyzed using R software, for description and modeling with ARIMA and Prophet. Results: This study showed that the total number of Covid-19 cases recorded during the period studied was 13,611, a median of 3,740 was recorded on June 1, 2020; on average, 4810 cases were registered. New confirmed cases had a median of 79 and an average of 73.9 new cases recorded. On average 3050 cured cases were recorded with a median of 1860. On average 3940 cases were transmitted locally. March recorded the highest positivity rate at 13.56% with a sharp decline to 8.49% in August. An attack rate of 1.05 per 100,000 populations was recorded in March, this rate reached 20.98 in August. The reproduction rate was at 1.96 at the start of the state of emergency on March 23, 2020; this rate increased to 1.11 at the end of our study, on August 31, 2020. Conclusion: The predicted and actual data had shown an upward record of new confirmed cases at the end of 2020. But the data may change in reality due to some changes. In the absence of change, despite the measures put in place, the hope is that the vaccine can provide a solution.
Author Keywords: Covid-19, confirmed cases, evolution, Senegal.
Volume 71, Issue 1, February 2024, Pages 9–20
Alyette Carêne Bondha1 and JEAN AUGUSTIN DIEGANE TINE2
1 Institut de Santé Publique et de Développement (ISED), Dakar, Senegal
2 Institut de Santé Publique et de Développement (ISED), Dakar, Senegal
Original language: French
Copyright © 2024 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
Introduction: The coronavirus of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome 2 was discovered in 2019 in the city of Wuhan, China. The preliminary reproduction rate of SARS-CoV-2 was estimated to be between 1. 4 and 2. 5 by WHO on 23 January 2020. Senegal has positioned itself among the countries most affected by the pandemic in Africa. Strategies for the response to the COVID-19 epidemic have been put in place to ensure an operational and effective response in Dakar and the provinces. The overall objective of this study is to analyse the epidemiological evolution of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Senegal in 2020. Methodology: This was a time series analysis of Covid-19 during the period from March 02 to August 31, 2020. The study population was people tested by RT-PCR for covid-19. The data was aggregated from the publications of the Ministry of Health on the Covid-19 Senegal site and from the WHO. The data collected was analyzed using R software, for description and modeling with ARIMA and Prophet. Results: This study showed that the total number of Covid-19 cases recorded during the period studied was 13,611, a median of 3,740 was recorded on June 1, 2020; on average, 4810 cases were registered. New confirmed cases had a median of 79 and an average of 73.9 new cases recorded. On average 3050 cured cases were recorded with a median of 1860. On average 3940 cases were transmitted locally. March recorded the highest positivity rate at 13.56% with a sharp decline to 8.49% in August. An attack rate of 1.05 per 100,000 populations was recorded in March, this rate reached 20.98 in August. The reproduction rate was at 1.96 at the start of the state of emergency on March 23, 2020; this rate increased to 1.11 at the end of our study, on August 31, 2020. Conclusion: The predicted and actual data had shown an upward record of new confirmed cases at the end of 2020. But the data may change in reality due to some changes. In the absence of change, despite the measures put in place, the hope is that the vaccine can provide a solution.
Author Keywords: Covid-19, confirmed cases, evolution, Senegal.
Abstract: (french)
Introduction: Le coronavirus du syndrome respiratoire aigu sévère 2, est découvert en 2019 dans la ville de Wuhan en Chine. Le taux de reproduction préliminaire de SARS-CoV-2 a été estimé entre 1,4 et 2,5 par l’OMS le 23 janvier 2020. Le Sénégal s’est positionné parmi les pays les plus affectés par cette pandémie en Afrique. Des stratégies ont été mises en place pour la riposte à l’épidémie au COVID-19 visant à assurer une réponse opérationnelle et efficace à Dakar et dans les provinces. Cette étude a pour objectif général d’analyser l’évolution épidémiologique de nouveaux cas confirmés de Covid-19 au Sénégal en 2020. Méthodologie: Il s’agissait d’une analyse chronologique des séries temporelles de la Covid-19 durant la période allant du 02 mars au 31 août 2020. La population d’étude était les personnes testées par RT-PCR pour rechercher la covid-19. Les données ont été agrégées à partir des publications du ministère de la santé sur le site Covid-19 Sénégal et de l’OMS. Les données collectées ont été analysées à l’aide du logiciel R, pour la description et la modélisation avec ARIMA et Prophet. Résultats: Cette étude a montré que le nombre total de cas de Covid-19 enregistrés durant la période étudiée était de 13611, une médiane de 3740 a été enregistrée le 1er juin 2020; en moyenne, 4810 cas étaient enregistrés. Les nouveaux cas confirmés avaient une médiane de 79 et en moyenne, 73,9 nouveaux cas enregistrés. En moyenne 3050 cas guéris ont été enregistrés avec une médiane de 1860. En moyenne, 3940 cas ont été transmis localement. Le mois de mars a enregistré le taux de positivité le plus élevé à 13,56% avec une nette régression à 8,49% en août. Un taux d’attaque à 1,05 pour 100 000 habitants a été enregistré en mars, ce taux a atteint 20,98 en août. Le taux de reproduction était à 1,96 au début de l’état d’urgence le 23 mars 2020; ce taux est passé à 1,11 à la fin de notre étude, le 31 août 2020. Conclusion: Les données prédites et réelles avaient montré un enregistrement à la hausse de nouveaux cas confirmés à la fin de l’année 2020. Mais les données peuvent changer dans la réalité à cause de certains changements. En absence de changement, malgré les mesures mises en place, l’espoir est que le vaccin pourra apporter une solution.
Author Keywords: Covid-19, cas confirmés, évolution, Sénégal.
How to Cite this Article
Alyette Carêne Bondha and JEAN AUGUSTIN DIEGANE TINE, “Analysis of the epidemiological evolution of new confirmed cases of Covid-19 in Senegal from March to August 2020,” International Journal of Innovation and Scientific Research, vol. 71, no. 1, pp. 9–20, February 2024.
