[ Effets non linéaires de court terme de la politique budgétaire sur l’activité économique au Maroc : Analyse empirique à changement de régime ]
Volume 39, Issue 1, October 2018, Pages 66–78
Anouar Ghazi1
1 Département des sciences économiques, Faculté des sciences économiques juridiques et sociales Souissi, Université Mohamed V de Rabat, Morocco
Original language: French
Copyright © 2018 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
This paper aims to evaluate the non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on activity in Morocco. We estimate a three-variable MS-VAR over the period from 1990 to 2015 (quarterly basis). The results reveal that the economic activity in Morocco experienced at least one regime change in 1998. Indeed, two regimes emerge: i) the first one occurs over the period 1999 to 2015 and the ii) the second one from 1990 to 1998. In both regimes, fiscal policy does not significantly affect economic activity, and so its effects can be qualified as non-expansionist. Moreover, fiscal policy is found to be pro-cyclical especially over the period from 1999 to 2015, displaying a non-Keynesian behavior. In other words, the fiscal policy in Morocco does not play its role of stabilization policy.
Author Keywords: Fiscal policy, economic activity, regime change, non-linear effects, non-linear VAR.
Volume 39, Issue 1, October 2018, Pages 66–78
Anouar Ghazi1
1 Département des sciences économiques, Faculté des sciences économiques juridiques et sociales Souissi, Université Mohamed V de Rabat, Morocco
Original language: French
Copyright © 2018 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
This paper aims to evaluate the non-linear macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy on activity in Morocco. We estimate a three-variable MS-VAR over the period from 1990 to 2015 (quarterly basis). The results reveal that the economic activity in Morocco experienced at least one regime change in 1998. Indeed, two regimes emerge: i) the first one occurs over the period 1999 to 2015 and the ii) the second one from 1990 to 1998. In both regimes, fiscal policy does not significantly affect economic activity, and so its effects can be qualified as non-expansionist. Moreover, fiscal policy is found to be pro-cyclical especially over the period from 1999 to 2015, displaying a non-Keynesian behavior. In other words, the fiscal policy in Morocco does not play its role of stabilization policy.
Author Keywords: Fiscal policy, economic activity, regime change, non-linear effects, non-linear VAR.
Abstract: (french)
Ce travail se propose d’évaluer les effets macroéconomiques non linéaires de la politique budgétaire sur l’activité au Maroc. Sur la période allant de 1990 à 2015 (base trimestrielle) nous estimons un MS-VAR à trois variables. Les résultats dégagés indiquent que l’activité économique au Maroc a connu au moins un changement de régime vers l’année 1998. En effet, deux régimes émergent : i) le 1er régime correspond à la période 1999 à 2015 et le ii) le 2ème régime concerne la période allant de 1990 à 1998. Sur les deux régimes, la politique budgétaire n’affecte pas de manière significative l’activité économique, et donc ses effets peuvent être qualifiés de non expansionnistes. De plus, la politique budgétaire est trouvée pro-cyclique surtout sur la période allant de 1999 à 2015, affichant ainsi un comportement, d’un point de vue théorique, non Keynésien. En d’autres termes, la politique budgétaire au Maroc ne joue pas son rôle de politique de stabilisation conjoncturelle censée être contra-cyclique.
Author Keywords: Politique budgétaire, activité économique, changement de régime, effets non linéaires, VAR non linéaire.
How to Cite this Article
Anouar Ghazi, “Short-run non-linear effects of fiscal policy on economic activity in Morocco : Swtching regime empirical analysis,” International Journal of Innovation and Scientific Research, vol. 39, no. 1, pp. 66–78, October 2018.
