[ L'inflation sous-jacente en Tunisie : une application de l'approche VAR structurel ]
Volume 1, Issue 1, April 2014, Pages 41–50
Rima Lajnaf1
1 Département des Sciences Economiques, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université de Sfax, Tunisia
Original language: French
Copyright © 2014 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Since the creation of money, a good reading of inflation evolutions is an essential element for many economic actors. However, inflation as measured by the consumer price index represents some volatility. Indeed, since its establishment, the general price index shows a marked seasonality and its level rises irregularly. Therefore, It is essential for a central bank to distinguish in the evolutions of the inflation between what is simply noise , destined to disappear quickly, what is a sustainable trend. In the context of price stability that have adopted the aim of their monetary policy, central banks should control and have an accurate measure of structural inflation, namely the component corrected by the influence of economic cycle, because it is this element that is monetary origin. This component of inflation, called core inflation is obtained by canceling the cyclical component attributed to shocks on output. We try in this work to measure the main component of inflation in Tunisia from a structural VAR. The results comfort the choice of the approach because the calculated core inflation seems broadly in compliance with that waited on the theoretical plan.
Author Keywords: Price stability, core inflation, Structural VAR, Tunisia.
Volume 1, Issue 1, April 2014, Pages 41–50
Rima Lajnaf1
1 Département des Sciences Economiques, Faculté des Sciences Economiques et de Gestion, Université de Sfax, Tunisia
Original language: French
Copyright © 2014 ISSR Journals. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Abstract
Since the creation of money, a good reading of inflation evolutions is an essential element for many economic actors. However, inflation as measured by the consumer price index represents some volatility. Indeed, since its establishment, the general price index shows a marked seasonality and its level rises irregularly. Therefore, It is essential for a central bank to distinguish in the evolutions of the inflation between what is simply noise , destined to disappear quickly, what is a sustainable trend. In the context of price stability that have adopted the aim of their monetary policy, central banks should control and have an accurate measure of structural inflation, namely the component corrected by the influence of economic cycle, because it is this element that is monetary origin. This component of inflation, called core inflation is obtained by canceling the cyclical component attributed to shocks on output. We try in this work to measure the main component of inflation in Tunisia from a structural VAR. The results comfort the choice of the approach because the calculated core inflation seems broadly in compliance with that waited on the theoretical plan.
Author Keywords: Price stability, core inflation, Structural VAR, Tunisia.
Abstract: (french)
Depuis la création de la monnaie, une bonne lecture des évolutions de l'inflation représente un élément essentiel pour nombreux acteurs économiques. Toutefois, l'inflation telle qu'elle est mesurée par l'indice des prix à la consommation représente une certaine volatilité. En effet, depuis sa mise en place, cet indice général des prix présente une saisonnalité marquée et son niveau s'élève irrégulièrement. Il est donc indispensable pour une banque centrale de distinguer dans les évolutions de l'inflation ce qui relève du simple bruit, destiné à disparaître rapidement, de ce qui relève d'une tendance durable. Dans le cadre de la stabilité des prix que ont adopté comme objectif de leur politique monétaire, les banques centrales doivent maîtriser et disposer d'une mesure précise de l'inflation structurelle, c'est-à-dire celle corrigée de l'influence du cycle économique, car c'est cette composante de l'inflation qui est d'origine monétaire. Cette composante de l'inflation, appelée inflation sous-jacente est obtenue en annulant la composante cyclique attribuée aux chocs survenus sur la production. Nous essayons, dans ce travail, de mesurer cette principale composante de l'inflation en Tunisie à partir d'un VAR structurel. Les résultats réconfortent le choix de l'approche puisque l'inflation sous-jacente calculée semble globalement conforme à celle attendue sur le plan théorique.
Author Keywords: Stabilité des prix, inflation sous-jacente, VAR structurel, Tunisie.
How to Cite this Article
Rima Lajnaf, “Core inflation in Tunisia: an application of the structural VAR approach,” International Journal of Innovation and Scientific Research, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 41–50, April 2014.
